VERY DISRUPTIVE NEW TECH CARMAKERS

This is a 12-page note which is part 1 of a 3 part series. 

This note will be of interest to investors who want to understand:

1. how is the car market going to be changing in the next few year, faster than most have anticipated. 
2. How could this impact on Tesla.
3. Which Chinese stocks could benefit from these changes.
4. Why you want to own parts companiess and not the assemblers.

Summary of my research note China One Belt One Road on Real Vision

Summary of my research note China One Belt One Road on Real Vision July 21, 2017

This week we got a lesson from Scott Laprise in how the Chinese think. I believe we are currently witnessing a seismic shift in the global order. We may look back at the emergence of Donald Trump as POTUS, side by side with the emergence of China’s One Belt, One Road strategy, as a seminal moment in geopolitical history. As the US becomes more insular, their hegemonic status is eroded, whilst China is emerging as a reluctant superpower.

In the age of computer algorithms and central bank distortions, it is hard to find an edge in markets.Competing over the short term with huge financial institutions that have preferential access to information and fast computers is a thankless and very often financially ruinous task.

As both Raoul Pal and Scott Laprise suggest, an edge can be gleaned by having patience and a long time horizon. Drowning out the noise and stepping out of your echo chamber can be incredibly rewarding, both financially and intellectually.

US companies in China: Are they leaving China under Trump pressure?  from February 24, 2017 interview
some highlights below from the article



Laprise indicates that these decisions are made based on business indicators, not because of Trump. "You will always have some companies wanting to move in at certain stage of an economy. Naturally you will have low-end moving to mid-end and high-end."

As everything is still up in the air, Laprise notes that the Chinese government could use this as an excuse to squeeze out some of the low-end jobs and upgrade its manufacturing sector. 

“I think this is a good excuse for the Chinese government to start ask them to slowing leave. We are now at a tipping point of a country moving from an assembly country to a more advanced manufacturing. And this is great for China,” Laprise told CGTN.

Who doesn't want a BMW

My intiation report on Brilliance and BMW in China

Saving Volvo: Geely buys brand and management test

“I have been through a lot of mergers and acquisitions in my career and they are difficult, even in the same culture,” said Scott Laprise, an analyst at CLSA bank.Saving Volvo:

Saab-Pang Da deal tests China's auto policy

"If you look around, all these big exporters need to be dominating in their home markets first, that's the normal rule," said Scott Laprise, China auto analyst with CLSA. "It's very rare that could happen if they are inefficient automakers or unfocused brands at home."